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Wednesday, April 11 • 3:45pm - 4:00pm
TRADEOFFS IN ENERGY PRODUCTION: Examining Evidence for Drivers of Indirect Land-use Change Associated with Biofuel Policies

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AUTHORS: Keith L. Kline,* ORNL; Mudit Chordia, KTH, Stockholm; Miguel Brandao, KTH, Stockholm; Virginia H. Dale, ORNL; Hans Langeveld, Biomass Research Wageningen; Gbadebo Oladosu, ONRL; Annette Cowie, Government of NSW, Sydney Australia; Uwe Fritsche, IINAS, Darmstadt Germany

ABSTRACT: We present an updated conceptual framework to represent key effects of policy on drivers of land-use change. Theoretical drivers of indirect land-use change (ILUC) in current modeling are examined to provide a comparison of assumed relationships with historical observations for key drivers. We analyze data from 1990 to 2016 to illustrate trends pre- and post- biofuel policy implementation. The analysis includes linkages among cropland area and forest area, corn production and use for ethanol, commodity exports and prices, which are among the factors used in models to estimate indirect effects of biofuel policies. The Statistics on US bioethanol production highlight that the years of rapid growth occur between 2001 and 2011. We examine corn production and use, corn share of cropland area, yields, production of DDGS, and trade of maize and other US agricultural products. Results suggest that biofuel policies stimulated domestic corn production and investments that improved corn yields. While US corn and soy bean production areas increased, total agricultural area did not. We also documented historical variability in production, prices and exports. While many fluctuations can be explained by factors exogenous to biofuel policy, we discuss approaches to test for the effects of biofuel policy in terms of commodity prices, price and trade volatility, and productive system buffering capacity. Market growth and end-use diversification combine with flexibility in US renewable fuel mandates, may increase system buffering capacity and supply stability.

Wednesday April 11, 2018 3:45pm - 4:00pm CDT
LaSalle 2 (7th Floor)

Attendees (1)