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Wednesday, April 11 • 10:45am - 11:00am
CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS AND ADAPTATION: Simulating the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Boreal Habitats Under Climate Change

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AUTHORS: Yan Boulanger, Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, Québec; Junior A. Tremblay, Environment and Climate change Canada, Sciences and Technologies, Québec; Martin-Hugues Saint-Laurent, Université du Québec à Rimouski, Rimouski, Québec, Canada; Anthony Taylor, Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Atlantic Forestry Centre; David Price, Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre; Dominic Cyr, Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, Québec; Diana Stralberg, University of Alberta, Department of Renewable Resources

ABSTRACT: Many studies project future species range by relying on species distribution models. This approach does not take into account the projected realized migration of the habitat (e.g., forest cover) as it fails to consider the interactions among stand- and landscape-level impacts of climate change, tree dispersal abilities, and effects of anthropogenic disturbances on forest structure and hence on habitat distribution. Forest landscape models, such as LANDIS II, simulate stand- (e.g., forest succession, growth) and landscape-scale processes (e.g., seed dispersal, natural and anthropogenic disturbances), enabling the projections of forest habitats at meaningful temporal and spatial scales by readily simulating the impact of climate change on these ecological processes. We are presenting here an overview of our modelling framework based on LANDIS-II that aims to project future habitats for various species at risk in Canada. Our simulation platform can readily take into account several anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios on forest growth as well as the impacts of spruce budworm outbreaks and climate-induced changes in fires. Also, it can simulate how different forest management strategies can interact with climate change to impact future habitats. Here we present three different case studies where we projected future habitats for i) woodland caribou, ii) black-backed woodpecker in central Quebec as well as iii) for eight bird species in northeastern Alberta. Our analyses helped identify which agent of change is the most important to shape future habitats. These also helped to identify adaptation strategies to help restore endangered species.

Wednesday April 11, 2018 10:45am - 11:00am CDT
LaSalle 1 (7th Floor)