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Tuesday, April 10 • 11:30am - 11:45am
INVASIVE SPECIES: (Meta)population Dynamics Determine Effective Spatial Distributions of Mosquito-borne Disease Control

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AUTHORS: Samantha Schwab*, Rutgers University; Chris Stone, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; Dina Fonseca, Center for Vector Biology; Nina Fefferman, University of Tennessee Knoxville

ABSTRACT: Recent epidemics of mosquito-borne dengue and Zika viruses demonstrate the urgent need for effective measures to control these diseases. The best method currently available to prevent or reduce the size of outbreaks is to reduce the abundance of their mosquito vectors, but there is little consensus on which mechanisms of control are most effective, or when and where they should be implemented. Although the optimal methods are likely context-dependent, broadly applicable strategies for mosquito control, such as how to distribute limited resources across a landscape in times of high epidemic risk, can mitigate (re)-emerging outbreaks. We used mathematical simulations to examine how the spatial distribution of larval mosquito control affects the size of disease outbreaks, and how mosquito metapopulation dynamics and demography (ecological context) might impact the efficacy of different spatial distributions of control. We found that the birth rate and mechanism of density-dependent regulation of mosquito populations affected the average outbreak size across all control distributions, with a higher birth rate leading to smaller outbreaks in some circumstances. Ecological context also determined whether spatial control distributions favoring the interior or the edges of the landscape most effectively reduced human infections. Thus, control efforts that consider local mosquito population dynamics to determine how to distribute limited resources across space may reduce the size of mosquito-borne disease outbreaks more effectively than uninformed efforts.

Tuesday April 10, 2018 11:30am - 11:45am CDT
Spire Parlor