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Wednesday, April 11 • 3:45pm - 4:00pm
SYMPOSIA-16: Spatial and Temporal Scaling of a Plot-scale CO2 and Ozone Enrichment Experiment to Landscape Scale Using LANDIS PnET-Succession

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AUTHORS: Eric J. Gustafson*, Mark E. Kubiske, Brian R. Miranda – USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station

ABSTRACT: The Aspen-FACE experiment generated 11 years of empirical data on the effect of elevated CO2 and ozone (O3) (alone and in combination) on the growth productivity of model aspen communities (multiple aspen clones, aspen-birch, and aspen-maple) in northern Wisconsin (USA). Uncertainty remains about how these short-term plot-level responses might play out at the landscape scale over multiple decades where climate change, competition, succession and disturbances interact with tree species-level traits such as optimal temperature for photosynthesis and shade and drought tolerance. In this study we used a physiology-based approach (PnET-Succession) within the LANDIS-II forest landscape model to scale the FACE results to broader temporal and spatial scales by mechanistically accounting for the globally changing drivers of temperature, precipitation, CO2 and O3. We calibrated the model using experimental results for each treatment factor (CO2 and O3) alone, and validated the model using the treatment factors in combination. When the experiment was continued by simulation for 80 years, the model predicted if and when various taxa would die from competitive failure and the expected biomass of each taxa under each treatment. All taxa did not occur together in the experiment, but when they were simulated together, the dynamics of competitive exclusion varied by treatment combination. We also used the model to simulate the competitive dynamics of species not included in the Aspen-FACE experiment, both at the site and landscape scale, providing insight into the implications of elevated CO2 and O3 on the dynamics of real forest landscapes of north-central USA.

Wednesday April 11, 2018 3:45pm - 4:00pm CDT
Grant Park Parlor

Attendees (4)