US-IALE 2018

AUTHORS: Naci Dilekli, University of Oklahoma; Qingtao Zhou, Boise State University; Jennifer Koch, University of Oklahoma

ABSTRACT: Urbanization and its impacts on the environment are intensively debated in a wide range of fields. Modeling efforts focusing on urbanization at the local scale are particularly important to analyze and understand the effect of parcel-level local decision making by planners and entrepreneurs. The goal of this work is threefold: Fist, we evaluate historical growth using parcel-level records to understand spatial development patterns in the Oklahoma City Metropolitan Area. Second, we use the outcomes of this analysis to parametrize a spatiotemporal simulation model. Third, we use the model to simulate population growth and resulting urbanization in the greater Oklahoma City Metropolitan Area through 2050. Urban sprawl and infill development are two primary means of population growth in urban environments, as discussed in urbanization literature which also deals with themes such as smart growth, compact city, and new urbanism. New development, through sprawl and infill, are often achieved through splitting existing parcels to allow more buildings in a smaller area or develop parts of larger parcels at the urban fringe. We use a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario to understand and visualize how the continuation of historical development trends plays out in the landscape. We also develop two other scenarios based on more dramatic sprawl and infill development. In this paper, we describe our GIS approach to identifying newly developed parcels, introduce the functionality of our spatiotemporal simulation model (based on the ENVISION modeling framework), and discuss the differences between the three urbanization scenarios.